Voting history and draw positions and impacts on Eurovision voting patterns

Adrian Kavanagh, 26th May 2012

Other than song quality and the impact of song contest performances, there are two key factors that may impact on a country’s result in a Eurovision song contest – their ability to draw on reliable support from either “friends and neighbours” or diaspora voting and the position their act will be performing in at that contest. In this post, I will look at these factors and tease out what these might mean in terms of the points this year’s Eurovision finalists might hope to win based on these factors.

Friends and neighbours voting/diaspora voting: During the televoting era, countries have shown a remarkable consistency in terms of the other countries that they vote for. This is probably most evident in the case of Greece and Cyprus’s tendency to award each other douze points in Eurovision contests and more recently in terms of the voting relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Similar trends can be observed for most other European contestants, including Ireland who showed a remarkable consistency during the “full-blown” televoting era in awarding its high Eurovision points to Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and the United Kingdom as well as to Denmark and Sweden, especially from 2005 onwards. Such has been the consistency in Eurovision countries’ voting patterns during the 2000s that one can easily suggest the existence of different, geographically-based, voting blocs, which tend to award especially high numbers of points to certain countries (not necessarily always other bloc members) and from which bloc members can expect to attain their highest Eurovision points tallies. The impact of such “bloc voting” has been tempered in recent years by the reintroduction of a professional jury voting element as part of a 50-50 voting system involving televoting and jury votes. But given that televoting still accounts for half of the total votes being awarded by countries, past voting histories of countries will give a strong indicator as to the destination of their Eurovision votes in the 2012 Final, and also suggests that some countries – due to an ability to score highly within one, or more, Eurovision voting blocs – will start the contest at somewhat of an advantage to countries such as France, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus and the United Kingdom, who have struggled to win the big Eurovision points over the past decade and half.

To analyse this, I studied, and ranked, the average number of points awarded by the 42 countries (the 26 finalists and 16 unlucky semi-finalists) since the introduction of televoting in 1998 to the 26 countries that are taking part in this year’s final. This is to determine which countries that country is likely to award their 12 points, 10 points…and 1 point to in this year,s contest. Hence, in the case of Ireland, the Irish 12 points vote is expected to go to Lithuania (with an average points tally of 8.3 from Ireland over the years), the 2012 finalist that has enjoyed the highest average support level from France in Eurovision contests, followed by Denmark (7.3 points average) who get awarded 10 points, United Kingdom (5.2) who get awarded 8 points…and so on. The predicted points destination for all the other 41 voting countries are estimated in a similar manner. Once the points are combined, the final points tallies for the competing countries in the 2012 Final, based on past voting history, are predicted as follows:

1. United Kingdom 39
2. Hungary 66
3. Albania 71
4. Lithuania 43
5. Bosnia and Herzegovina 136
6. Russia 139
7. Iceland 70
8. Cyprus 32
9. France 3
10. Italy 180
11. Estonia 52
12. Norway 116
13. Azerbaijan 220
14. Romania 100
15. Denmark 96
16. Greece 188
17. Sweden 133
18. Turkey 151
19. Spain 32
20. Germany 47
21. Malta 43
22. FYR Macedonia 68
23. Ireland 24
24. Serbia 159
25. Ukraine 160
26. Moldova 78

The figures above offers a prediction as to the number of points that countries would win if solely based on the previous voting patterns of the 42 countries which will be voting in tonight’s Final. Interestingly, on the basis of these figures alone we would be returning again to Baku for next year’s Eurovision. However it is worth noting that these figures will be skewed in favour of successful countries who have recently joined, or returned to, the contest – an obvious case here would be Azerbaijan who only entered Eurovision for the first time back in 2008 and have managed Top 10 results in all of these contests, but Italy (ranked second) would be an even starker example in that Italy has only competed in one contest since 1997 and this was a contest that Italy finished second in (mainly due to an exceptionally high vote from the voting juries). Leaving those concerns aside, these figures here do underpin the fact that past voting histories do give certain countries a significant advantage in terms of winning points in Eurovision contests, as well as of course in terms of being able to qualify for finals.

The strong concentration of “new” Eurovision countries amongst the top echelons here is readily evident (as well as the number of Eastern European countries) – indeed some of the high ranked countries only have a small number of Eurovision contests “under their belts” and it could be argued that their points tally as such reflects the fact that they have not been in sufficient contests for their high tallies to be offset by lower points tallies in less successful contests for these countries. The absence of Armenia from the 2012 contest also has an impact in that a number of countries (notably Turkey, Azerbaijan, Greece and Serbia) are picking up more ‘diaspora’ votes from Western European countries, such as Germany and France, that they might have expected to as indeed happened in last year’s final when Armenia and Turkey were not in competition.

That said, with jury voting and with the potential for very strong songs/performances to impact on televoters, it is possible for countries to defy their past voting histories and attain results that are very much against the run of what would have been expexted on their previous pattern of results. This has already been evident in this year’s contest – voting histories suggested low semi final rankings for countries such as Cyprus, Lithuania and Ireland, but all these countries succeeded in making it to this year’s final. So voting history/bloc voting is only one element of the different factors that help determine a Eurovision winner, or even a strong Eurovision result/high placing.

Draw position: As noted in an earlier post, vote patterns for past contests suggest that a country’s draw position can (in part) determine how well they do in that contest, with certain positions in the draw (generally later) associated with a stronger likelihood of success/higher average points level as against other draw positions (generally those in the earlier part of the show). A late Eurovision draw position offers a competing country a distinct advantage, as indeed proves to be the case for Jedward this year. But there are subtle variants within different parts of the draw. In the earlier part of the draw entries drawn in the 5th, 7th, 8th and 1st draw positions have done significantly better than those drawn in the 2nd (the veritable draw of death), 4th, 9th and 6th positions. Similarly in the latter part of the draw, it is evident that a draw position near the end, but not at the end, is the most advantageous draw to get. It is better to be on three songs before the end than in the very last draw position – a notable difference from the trend for semi-finals in which the last draw position proved to be the most advantageous (possibly due to the generally smaller number of countries in a semi-final – the 2007 marathon semi final being a notable exception). Based solely on draw position we would be off to Madrid for the 2012 contest – the 2011 results would read as follows:

1. United Kingdom 76
2. Hungary 45
3. Albania 64
4. Lithuania 48
5. Bosnia and Herzegovina 101
6. Russia 63
7. Iceland 97
8. Cyprus 78
9. France 67
10. Italy 123
11. Estonia 110
12. Norway 100
13. Azerbaijan 80
14. Romania 93
15. Denmark 76
16. Greece 90
17. Sweden 104
18. Turkey 134
19. Spain 95
20. Germany 105
21. Malta 124
22. FYR Macedonia 90
23. Ireland 114
24. Serbia 145
25. Ukraine 97
26. Moldova 115

It is notable that in the bulk of cases draw positions are not conveying an unsurpassable advtantage, with not much more than 40 points separating the countries ranked between 4th and 20th place, although the significant advantage of a later draw and disadvantage of an earlier draw (especially draw position No. 2) become readily apparent here.

If the predicted points based on voting history and draw positions are combined the following result for the 2011 Final might be predicted:

1. United Kingdom 52
2. Hungary 56
3. Albania 67
4. Lithuania 46
5. Bosnia and Herzegovina 119
6. Russia 101
7. Iceland 84
8. Cyprus 55
9. France 35
10. Italy 152
11. Estonia 81
12. Norway 108
13. Azerbaijan 150
14. Romania 97
15. Denmark 86
16. Greece 139
17. Sweden 119
18. Turkey 142
19. Spain 64
20. Germany 76
21. Malta 84
22. FYR Macedonia 79
23. Ireland 69
24. Serbia 152
25. Ukraine 128
26. Moldova 97

Leaving aside performance impact and song, it can be seen that a number of countries are starting the contest at a serious advantage/disadvantage based on their draw in tonight’s final and their past voting Eurovision history.

Eurovision 2012: New Friends For Ireland?

Adrian Kavanagh, 23rd May 2012

Leaving aside the advantage of our great semi final draw, the previous post on the voting histories of the different countries voting in Semi Final 1 suggested that Ireland would struggle to qualify if previous vote patterns were replicated in this year’s semi final. Given the fact that geography was not working to their advantage, the achievement of Jedward in qualifying for Saturday’s final (and indeed last year’s final) cannot be under-estimated. So what happened and where did Ireland get the votes? We won’t know until the official release of the semi final scores (and points awarded by the different countries) after the Final on Saturday night. It may well be that countries who voted strongly for Jedward in 2011, such as regular Ireland supporters such as Denmark, Finland and Latvia, but also countries such as Belgium and Spain which gave good points to Ireland last year after a decade of low points tallies from these, did so again and in sufficient numbers to just about edge Ireland into the final placings.  Alternately, it may have been the case that Ireland this year picked up points from countries, such as Greece, Cyprus, Moldova, Russia and Montenegro, that have not voted for us much, or indeed at all, in previous Eurovisions. If this was the case, it may well suggest that Jedward finished in a higher place in this year’s semi final than they did last year in Dusseldorf (8th place, just 15 points ahead of the 11th placed country) and may augur well for an improved result in the Final especially given Jedward’s much much better draw position.

The Last Will Be First? Eurovision and the Luck of the Draw

Adrian Kavanagh, 21st May 2012

Song and performance matters in terms of ultimate Eurovision success, but as previous posts have show “diaspora” and “friends and neighbours” voting can also help a country’s prospects of doing well in the contest, though of course not in themselves proving sufficient to win the contest for that country. But another key factor that can shape a country’s hopes of winning the contest is the draw position they get to perform in, with the usual rule of thumb suggesting that a late draw position significantly helps a country’s hopes of doing well in the contest.

Update: Jedward will perform in 23rd position (four from the end) in the Eurovision Final – an excellent draw position and one which could be even better if the Semi Final 2 countries performing in the same part of the draw are all ballads. At present the two draw positions immediately before Jedward (21st and 22nd) and immediately after them (24th and 25th) remain to be filled and will be decided at a draw during the Winners press conference after Thurday night’s semi final. Ideally to improve Jedward’s chances it would be ideal if the countries filling these positions were any of the following: Slovenia, The Netherlands, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Estonia, Belarus, Portugal, Croatia or Serbia. It would suit Jedward best if the countries NOT to get these draw positions included Sweden, Norway, Turkey or Ukraine. 

Who’s Who in Ireland’s Eurovision Song Contest Semi Final?

Adrian Kavanagh, 20th May 2012

Forty two countries will take part in this year’s Eurovision Song Contest in Baku, Azerbaijan, involving two semi finals and a final with these contests running from 22nd May until the 26th May. Six of these have an automatic bye to the final, which this year will comprise of twenty six different acts, one more than in the previous few years; these being the hosts, Azerbaijan, and the “Big 5″ countries, Germany, France, Spain, the United Kingdom and Italy. The other thirty six countries will be taking part in the contest’s two semi finals, to be held on the Tuesday and Thursday before final night, and vying for the other twenty places in the final, with eighteeen countries taking part in each of these semi finals. Ireland’s Jedward will take part in the first semi final and will perform last on the night, as they did in the second of the semi finals in Dusseldorf last year.

As noted before, the semi final draw is usually designed in such a way as to limit the effects of bloc voting and the advantages accruing to, countries which usually can bank on good neighbourly and/or diaspora voting support, but this year the draw seems to have clustered similar types of entries into the different semi final contests.  The second of the semi finals is largely dominated by ballad entries and in particular ballads from the Balkan region, such as the entries from Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Slovenia, which in turn probably increases the prospects of the more uptempo acts in that semi final, such as Sweden and Norway, of standing out amongst the other acts and making it out of the semi final. (Personally, I really love Slovenia’s Balkan ballad.)

The first of the two semi finals includes, by contrast, a stronger uptempo feel but also the largest number of novelty acts in a Eurovision contest since the ill-fated first semi final of the 2008 Belgrade contest. And I am not including Jedward in the list of novelty acts either… So let’s have a look at who’s who in this semi final.

1. Montenegro: Euro Neuro, Rambo Amadeus – Commencing with some bizarre post-Soviet (or maybe pre-Soviet ranting), this segues into two and a half minutes of Montenegrin mumble rap. Let’s just say that this is different… Rehearsals suggest that there is little more to expect from this other than utter barminess and a very big Trojan donkey, while Rambo looks as if he really doesn’t want to be there… He may not be the only one not wanting him to be there come 8.15pm on Tuesday. No chance of qualifying and a storng contender to finish last in this semi final, possibly even with the dreaded nils points.

Iceland in rehearsal.

2. Iceland: Never Forget, Greta Salome and Jonsi – Ah from the ridicolous to the sublime. Those of us with a relatively long Eurovision memory will remember Jonsi from the drowning-by-ballads 2004 Istanbul Final where he performed just before Chris Doran. Despite finishing in 19th place in that contest, there was no doubting his vocal ability especially when he “let rip” in the key change (which also did for any chances Chris had of making any impact on that Eurovision). This song, in which he duets with Greta Salome, is for me one of the best songs in this year’s contest and despite getting one of the worst possible draws in this semi final this should be a likely qualifier and a contender to do very well in the Final. This is coming across very strong in rehearsals and Iceland definitely knows how to stage a ballad, as we saw with Yohanna and ”Is It True?” in 2008.

3. Greece: Aphrodisiac, Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Hot on the heels of one of the better ballads in this year’s contest comes what should be one of the better uptempo entries in the contest and Greece always does well with Med-pop acts like this, especially with female vocalists. Rehearsals are posing some concerns though and the choreography for the Eurovision contest is less ambitious than Eleftheria had in the pared-back Greek final. Greece has never failed to qualify from a semi final since these were introduced in 2004 and despite the rehearsal issues they should keep that record in 2012 on the basis of a reliable diaspora and friends and neighbours vote. If the sound issues in rehearsals get sorted out and if Eleftheria gets a late draw in the final, this could well end up doing a Kalomira and be a dark horse for a Top 3 position in the final; the performance is needing a “lot of work” at the moment but it is worth remembering that Greece has been in the Top 10 at every Eurovision Final since 2004 and this year’s entry is a lot better than many of these previous Greek entries.

4. Latvia: Beautful Song, Anmary – Latvia had a very good record of qualifying from Eurovision semi finals for the first few years after these were first introduced but it has now been a number of years since the Latvians made a Eurovision final. This hippie-ish entry is well sung by Anmary but its silly lyrics means that it gets classed as one of the sillier song in this semi final. It also name checks Johny Logan. Not without hopes of making the final, but may be nixed by the early draw and the large number of strong contenders in this section of the first semi final.

5. Albania: Suus, Rona Nishliu - This is a song that is going to divide Europe. It will have its fans, impressed by Rona’s amazing vocals and passionate performance, but others may be reaching in despair for the volume controls as this is, let’s just say, very full on and wouldn’t be everyone’s cup of tea. It strikes as the kind of song and performance that may work better when viewed live rather on TV, in which case it may be needing a big vote from the juries to get this through to the final. I think this could be a very likely prospect.

6. Romania: Zaleilah, Mandinga – While the Russian grannies are in this semi final and tipped as serious contenders to win Eurovision this year and Denmark are also expected to do well, there are two serious dark horses in this semi final who could well go on to pose a serious challenge for the final honours. One of those is Iceland (as discussed above), while the other is this act from Romania, a bright breezy and catchy piece of pop which also features some bagpipes to keep the Scottish televoters happy. This is going down very well in rehearsals and looks a certain qualifier from this semi final – if the Russian grannies do not win this semi final then this could be song to win it.

7. Switzerland: Unbreakable, Sinplus – Switzerland has probably been one of the unluckier Eurovision countries in recent years,n always making the effort to send a good act to the contest (their 2004 blip aside and possibly their 2010 entry also) but only having qualified for the final on two occasions over the past decade.  Even when they finally qualified for the final last year for the first time since 2005, the Swiss act rather undeservedly ended up finishing last in the final. This year’s Swiss entry is a good pop-rock song and would not be out in the final by any means, but may be chasing the same type of vote as Hungary’s Compact Disco (who have the advantage of a later draw) and are also unlucky enough to be drawn to perform close to a number of other strong contenders and to follow on after Mandinga. This could yet be another Swiss “probably should have qualified” story…

8. Belgium: Would You?, Iris – Like Switzerland, Belgium is another country that probably should have qualified for more Eurovision finals than it has, although there has also been a number of less worthy efforts over the past few years also, including last year’s highly irritating Belgian entry, which came close enough to beating Jedward for a place in the Dusseldorf final. Iris is not making much impact on the bookies’ odds, but this is a well-sung and pleasant ballad from one of this year’s younger contestants. Belgium’s sole win in 1986 came with another young female soloist. They probably won’t get a similar result this year but this could well score well enough with the juries to make it out of the semi final.

9. Finland: När Jag Blundar, Pernilla Karlsson - Finland was Eurovision’s perennial underachievers untill Lordi achieved victory in 2006 and the country’s record has not been too bad over the past few years in terms of qualifying from Eurovision semi finals. The only Swedish entry in the contest (and as far as I can make out, the first Swedish entry in the contest since the abolition of the native language rule in the late 1990s) and another ballad immediately following on from Belgium, this may be lacking enough spark to stand out enough to take one of the ten qualifying spots, but it is still in contention to make it through.

10. Israel: Time, Izabo - After Belgium and Finland’s ballads comes something totally different from Israel, a bit of a 1980s throwback that mixes elements of The Cure with that music they used to play each morning on RTE Radio at the start of broadcasting. Given its position in the draw this will stand out and Israel do have a relatively good Eurovision record over the past few years, but it may also be a bit too quirky for both the juries and the televoters.  But again this will be in contention for one of the final spots.

11. San Marino: The Social Networking Song (Oh Oh Uh Oh Oh), Valentina Monetta - Oh my… The sort of song that gives Eurovision a bad name. San Marino has the shortest history of any Eurovision country and their only two entries to date have been credible but non-qualifiers. Deciding that credibility has not worked, this year they’ve tried to go for the I love Belarus-so bad it’s good approach. This isn’t going to make it to the final and could well end up with nils points unless it gets a friends and neighbours vote from Italy or perplexes enough televoters to pick up a few points that way. Uh oh…indeed.

12. Cyprus: La La La Love, Ivi Adamou – Since finishing 5th in 2004, the Eurovision record of Cyprus has not been great and they have only qualified from the semi final on one other occasion since then (2010), but they should have a good chance of breaking that run of bad form this year with one of the better pop tunes in this year contest and rehearsals point to a good performance from Ivi Adamou on semi final night also. One drawback however is that the Greek entry is quite similar to this (and both entries are also fronted by young Cypriot soloists) so there may be a danger that Cyprus end up losing out on points to Greece, though the deuze points from Athens may well compensate for this.

13. Denmark: Should’ve Known Better, Soluna Samay- Presenting the song that may well get the deuze points from Ireland in this semi final (unless these go to Latvia) and probably will get the Irish deuze points in the final, this is yet another MOR/country-ish song from Denmark and the Danish formula in recent years has brought that country a relatively good level of success in the contest. This entry is amongst the ten songs tipped by the bookies as serious contenders for overall victory and on that basis would be expected to make it out of this semi final. While this isn’t really my cup of tea, I see no reason to disagree.

14. Russia: Party For Everybody, Buranovskiye Babushki – Be afraid, be very afraid, as these cuddly Russian grannies could well be the Lordi of 2012. This is virtually certain to qualify from this semi final and will be in serious contention to win the televote on final night (friends and neighbours votes in the east, guilty grandchildren votes in the west) and the juries may well be the only thing standing between Russia and a potential second Eurovision success as this song is hardly Bohemian Rhapsody and sounds, er, not very good. But this is the act with the X Factor this year and this is one of the serious contenders to win this semi final and indeed the whole contest…

15. Hungary: Sound Of Hearts, Compact Disco – One of the two credible pop-rock acts in this semi final along with Switzerland, this is coming across well in rehearsals and is definitely good enough to make it out of this semi final. Coming on immediately after the grannies may not be an ideal draw position, but on the other hand the later draw position can’t but help especially if Hungary and Switzerland are vying for just one final place for a pop-rock act.

16. Austia: Woki mit deim Popo, Trackshittaz – Prepare for the introduction to Eurovision of tractor rap, as well as a rather saucy show with these two boys effectively representing what Jedward would be like if they moved “up the country” and fell into bad company. Thankfully this is drawn to come on after the watershed however. This act has been struggling in rehearsals and if it doesn’t make enough of an impact on stage then tractor rap will have to wait another year before it makes its way to a Eurovision final.

17. Moldova: Lăutar, Pasha Parfenny - For me, along with Finland this is one of the more forgetable entries in this semi final, but it is coming across well in rehearsals and this kind-of-reggaeish tune does have its fans, while Moldova does have quite a number of friends voting in this semi final and since their debut in 2005 (remember granny and the drum?) Moldova have only failed to make it out of the semi finals on one occasion (no doubt related to some worrying singing to Teddy action) in the infamous 2008 Belgrade semi final. This will be there or thereabouts when the final places are decided no doubt.

18. Ireland: Waterline, Jedward – Hmm, I haven’t heard too much about this entry   but am glad to see Ireland is keeping up with the great Eurovision tradition of bringing acts that have achieved success in reality TV music shows and indeed they’re bringing the same former reality show act that excelled in Dusseldorf last year! Yes indeed, our chances of making it to the final are helped in no little part by the fact that yet again we are sending to Eurovision…

Leanne Moore in Eurovision rehearsals. There’s two other blokes leaping around somewhere…

…Leanne Moore. Yes my all time favourite You’re A Star contestant will be gracing the Eurovision stage for a second year in a row and this is no doubt a good thing. A very good thing. There’s some guys called Jedward also involved, but to be honest I don’t know too much about them… Oh yes, also watch out for the fountain, which will no doubt raise Phil Hogan’s water charging ire.

So how would I call this semi final?

Russia and Romania are virtually certain to qualify. Iceland, Denmark and Greece would also be highly likely to make it out of this semi final.

On the other hand, Montenegro and San Marino are highly unlikely to qualify and it is also not looking good for Latvia and Austria’s prospects either.

So there’s effectively nine countries vying for the last five qualifying spots. I think Cyprus should make it, though that isn;t always a guarantee… I think, given the way that juries vote, that there will be two other ballads joining Iceland out of this semi final and I think Albania will prove very jury friendly, despite the highly challenging nature and marmite qualities of this song, while I would pip Belgium to edge ahead of Finland to also take a final spot. There is probably one final qualifying spot, and probably just one, for the two pop-rock acts and voting history and draw position would probably edge Hungary ahead of Switzerland for this spot. This leaves Ireland, Moldova and Israel to probably fight it out for the last of the final qualifying spots, or the last two spots if the votes don’t go to Cyprus on the night.

I think these countries will qualify: Russia, Romania, Iceland, Greece, Denmark, Albania, Cyprus, Hungary, Belgium and Ireland (fingers crossed)

I would personally like to see these countries qualify: Iceland, Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Belgium, Ireland, Switzerland, Hungary, Austria (if they can get their act sorted out), Israel.

Photos are from the official Eurovision Song Contest website

Does the devil have all the best tunes? Freedom, repression and Eurovision voting patterns

Adrian Kavanagh, 18th May 2012

While the Eurovision Song Contest portrays itself as avowedly apolitical, as previous posts have shown there are strong political dimensions running through the contest, a factor that is no doubt increased by the fact that the contest is one of the few occasions that (often little known) countries get to portray themselves on a European stage and to an audience of hundreds of millions. This post touches on another dimension of this, attempting to understand whether a link exists between the level of freedom/repression in a state and that state’s prospects of doing well in the Eurovision Song Contest, mindful of the controversies involved with the hosting of this year’s contest in Baku by Azerbaijan and the hosting of, or the lead up to, previous contests in Ukraine, Serbia and Russia. Hosting Eurovision can act as a means of encouraging more progressive elements within a state, as was evidenced with the 2008 contest in Belgrade and (temporarily) 2005 contest in Kyiv, as well as opening these states up to a European-wide audience (and helping in the process of European-ising a state) as was also the case with Estonia’s hosting of the 2002 contest in Taalin and Latvia’s hosting of the 2003 contest in Riga. By contrast, the hosting of the 2009 Moscow contest seems to have had no impact on internal politics within Russia or on how that state interacted with, and portrayed itself to, the rest of Europe. This also leads to the consideration of whether there may be a link between success at the Eurovision Song Contest and the level of democraticisation or freedom within a state. This post suggests that such a link exists and it is the countries with lower levels of political, civil and press liberties are the more likely to do well in Eurovision contests. Is this accidental or not?

Politics, the Eurovision Song Contest and Ireland

Adrian Kavanagh, 3rd May 2012

Dodgy puppet or European geopolitical timebomb?

While the Eurovision Song Contest attests to be a non-political event, there are always strong political elements running through the different stages of this contest each year, whether it be issues to do with national song selections, the staging of the contest or the much discussed Eurovision voting patterns. This post will consider the politics of the contest with respect to Ireland’s participation in it. The political dimensions of the Eurovision Song Contest and Ireland’s involvement relate not only to voting patterns and this was evidenced in the relationship between the Dustin debacle of the 2008 Belgrade contest and the failure of the first referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which followed hot on the heels of that high profile Eurovision failure as will be discussed later. In light of this, it is perhaps chastening to remember that the upcoming European referendum will take place days after this year’s Eurovision Song Contest in Baku and consider whether a high profile Jedward loss in the semi final or a Jedward win could have a bearing on people’s intentions in the referendum! But first this post will look at the wider politics of the Eurovision and the different European countries that have been shaped by this.

Jed-ography or the Geography of Jedward? Where does Ireland win its Eurovision Song Contest points from?

Adrian Kavanagh, 2nd May 2012

In the mid-1990s the Irish were the undoubted kingpins of the Eurovision Song Contest. Starting in 1992, Ireland had enjoyed an unprecedented run of success in the contest. Between 1992 and 1996 Ireland would win the contest on four occasions (including a three in a row between 1992 and 1994); even in the year (1995) Ireland did not win the contest the winning act from Norway was to feature an Irish performer (Fionnuala Sherry) in a leading role. The winning run came to an end in 1997, but even in that year the Irish representative, Marc Roberts, would finish comfortably in second place. It seemed then as if it would be just a question of when, not if, Eurovision would be returning to Ireland.

Average points to Ireland from countries in Eurovisions between 1975 and 1997 (during the jury-voting era). Israel emerges distinctively as Ireland’s least enthusiastic supporter based on these figures.

Between 1997 and 2010 however, Ireland’s Eurovision fortunes fell decidedly into decline.

• While Ireland, between 1975 and 1997, had earned an average of 130 points per contest (averaged out on basis of what scores would be with 25 countries taking part/voting in each contest – maximum possible tally would be 288 points), with this average increasing to 169 points during Ireland’s glory days of the mid 1990s, Ireland’s average point tally has fallen to just 39 points per contest over the contests held during the 1998-2010 period.
• Between 1992 and 1997, Irish entries were awarded douze points (maximum number of points awarded by different participating countries) on 26 occasions, getting the “12″ from 3 different countries in 1992 (Linda Martin), 7 in 1993 (Niamh Kavanagh!), 8 in 1994 (Paul Harrington and Charlie McGettigan), 0 in 1995 (Eddie Friel), 7 in 1996 (Eimear Quinn) and 1 in 1997 (Marc Roberts). Between the late 1990s and 2010, however, Irish entries were awarded the coveted douze points on only four different occasions, getting a “12″ from Lithuania in 1999 and from Switzerland in the 2010 semi-final, and also getting “12″s from our nearest neighbour, the UK, in 2003 (Mickey Joe Harte) and the 2005 semi-final (the McCauls).

What was also evident was how Ireland’s vote patterns (that is, when we did win significant number of points) became decidedly more geographical in the noughties, as indeed was the case for most other participating Eurovision countries. While Ireland was the Fianna Fail of Eurovision in the 1980s and especially the early-to-mid 1990s – with a catch all pattern of support and an ability to win votes from all the participating Eurovision states (as the map above shows), in the 2000s Ireland tended to be dependent on support from a small number of countries located mainly in Scandinavia and the Baltic region – namely the Nordic Bloc countries – as well as some other “traditional” or “old Eurovision” countries such as Malta and Switzerland.

Eurovision televoting blocs: during the 2000s most of Ireland’s Eurovision points have tended to come from the Nordic bloc (shaded in red)

There also was, and still is, differences in taste evident within our strongest supporters – certain countries such as Norway and Switzerland tend to favour traditional Irish ballad entries, such as Brian Kennedy in 2006 and Niamh Kavanagh in 2010, but do not look favourably on more uptempo or less conventional entries such as Dustin the Turkey (and could you blame them), the McCauls and Jedward, but countries such as Belgium and Sweden tend to prefer these type of Irish entries. Our best friend in Eurovision is of course our closest neighbours, the United Kingdom, with Denmark following behind in an honourable second place and no doubt still wanting to make amends for all the pillaging of their Viking forebearers. The UK has only failed on one occasion to give points to Ireland on one occasion in the televoting era and that was in 2007 with Dervish, helped in some part no doubt by Terry Wogan deciding to get into a bit of a monologue during the BBC coverage of the performance but there were other factors at play also in fairness… Fortunately the Albanian jury vote helped save Dervish from the horror of the nil points on that occasion…a pity as that would have left them with statistically the worst ever result in Eurovision history, thus carving their names in the Eurovision record book for e’er more… At the other end of the scale, Ireland has won few, or no, points from a number of the “new Eurovision” countries (with the notable exception of the Baltic states; Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia), most of which have joined the contest over the past decade and with most of these being mainly from central and Eastern Eurovision. The extent to which Ireland was now struggling to win points from a large number of the countries competing in Eurovision is evident from the map below:

Average votes won by Irish entries at Eurovisions between 1998 and 2006. Much of the continent effectively was a Eurovision desert, with few, or no, points are being won from many of these countries.

During the televote era, Ireland has failed to win any Eurovision points from Greece, Belarus and Georgia, as well as Italy and San Marino, although the latter two countries have had fewer opportunities to vote for Irish entries given that since 1998 there has been only one Italian entry and two San Marinese entries taking part in the competition.

Ireland’s Eurovision fortunes have taken a decided turn for the better as we move out from the noughties and into the tenties or teenties. 2010 marked the first time an Irish entry had managed to qualify out of a Eurovision semi-final since Brian Kennedy’s success in the 2006 contest in Athens, although a United Kingdom douze points was needed to get Niamh Kavanagh out of what was probably the toughest and most competitive semi-final in Eurovision history. In 2011, Jedward also managed to make it out of their semi-final by a relatively narrow margin, but this time without being able to rely on a friends and neighbours vote from the United Kingdom as that country was not voting in Ireland’s semi-final as indeed will be the case again in the 2012 contest. Niamh Kavanagh’s geography of support was very much focused on the “old Eurovision” countries, earning her stronger points tallies from countries such as Switzerland, Norway and Israel which subsequently went on not to award points to Jedward in the 2011 contest. Just like Niamh Kavanagh in 2010, Jedward won relatively few points from the “new” Eurovision countries in the eastern part of Eurovision-land even though they went on to attain a Top 10 finish in the Final.

Jed-ography: the geography of Jedward’s support patterns in the 2011 Eurovision final. While Jedward picked up big points from a number of north-western European countries, they struggled to win points from southern and eastern European states.

The geography of Jedward in the 2011 Eurovision contest was very north-west in its focus, albeit with a significant outlier in the Iberian peninsula, with their biggest points coming from countries in the Nordic Bloc and other western countries located close to this region, such as Germany, the Netherland and Belgium – other more southerly western countries proved to be less generous, most notably the returning Italians but also the French. While significant Jedward points were associated with the countries clustered in the north-western part of the continent, relatively few points were won by Ireland by countries outside of this region and in particular in the more southern and eastern parts of the continent, with the notable exception of the Iberian countries. The problem with such concentrated vote patterns and with an over-reliance on a small number of countries for support, or Eurovision points, is two-fold. First of all, this relatively small number of Eurovision-supporting countries becomes an even smaller number when it is split between two different semi-finals and means that the maximum number of points Jedward can expect to win - in the expectation of higher points offerings from the Nordic and north-western countries but relatively few points from southern and eastern Eurovision countries – will tend to be not much bigger than the minimum number of points required to edge Ireland into the qualifying places in a semi-final, even allowing for favourable televote support trends. Secondly, it places a lid on Ireland’s Eurovision ambitions. Ireland can again hope for a Top 10 finish in the Final, if Jedward qualify and if the votes from Jedward’s Europe prove as favourable as they were in 2011, but they cannot hope to win if those parts of Eurovision-land that have been a virtual Eurovision-points desert in the 2000s remain so in the 2012 contest. Ultimately, the road to Eurovision victory for Jedward must run in such a way that it encompassed the countries located to the east of the Elbe and the Danube. To use good old elections parlance, Jedward need to be picking up at least the “lower preferences” (or, in other words, the 3, 4, 5 or 6 points tallies) from countries such as Moldova, Montenegro and Macedonia if we are to seriously entertain the prospect of an eight Irish Eurovision victory and Portlaoise 2013.

Estimating the US Presidential election result based on recent opinion poll levels

Opinion polls ahead of November’s presidential election contest in the United States of America have generally tended to be relatively favourable in recent weeks for Barack Obama with these polls putting him a few per cent ahead in head-to-head contests with his most likely opponents, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, and holding a significant poll lead over the other candidates for the Republican Party nomination. But it will not be the candidate who wins the most votes that wins this election (as proved to be the case in the controversial 2000 contest) but the candidate who wins the most Electoral College votes. Each of the states in the USA (and the District of Columbia) have a certain number of Electoral College votes attached to them, with this number based on the number of Senators (always two) and members of the House of Congress (a function of a state’s population level, but each state has at least one representative) representing the state. As such, the number of Electoral College votes assigned to different states is shaped somewhat by states’ population levels but with a bias towards the states with the smaller population levels as they will always be guaranteed three Electoral College votes

The proportion of Electoral College votes won by candidates in the presidential election does not measure up exactly to their actual share of the first preference vote. The disproportional nature of this electoral system is down to the fact that all the Electoral College votes on offer in a state are assigned to the candidate who wins the most votes in that state on a “winner takes all” basis. In some cases the level of difference/bias can be quite significant where winning candidates’ share of the Electoral College votes have been seen to far exceed their share of the popular vote in a number of past contests – ironically the 2000 contest was probably one of the most proportional contests in this regard. In order to assess how support levels evident in opinion polls might translate into Electoral College vote numbers, I attempt to estimate what the candidates’ first preference votes would be in the different states, assuming similar (proportional) change in party vote shares in all states along the lines of the constituency-level analysis of opinion polls model as covered in a number of posts on the politicalreform.ie website.

Baku-hoo-hoo – Ireland’s prospects of winning points off countries voting in Eurovision Semi Final 1

Adrian Kavanagh, 25 January 2012/Updated – 7th March 2012

It hardly seems that long since the 2011 Eurovision contest and yet we’re now already looking ahead to another one, with four countries having selected their entries for the 2012 contest as of tonight and the allocation draw for which semi final each country will be in (apart from the Big 5 and the hosts, Azerbaijan. who automatically qualify for the final) has been made.

Semi final draw allocations for Eurovision 2012

As is traditional now, Ireland would seem to have drawn the short straw in terms of semi final allocations, being drawn to compete in the first of the semi finals on Tuesday 22nd May with seventeen other countries and with relatively few “friends” amongst these and the Big 5/host countries drawn to vote in this semi final.

1. Montenegro: Europe’s newest state has had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on just two occasions – the 2007 final and the 2008 semi final and awarded Ireland a sum total of one point across those two contests. Then again, given that the two acts involved were Dervish and Dustin the low Montenegrin scoring might be somewhat understandable! Montenegro didn’t compete last year so no basis as yet for determining whether Jedward has appeal for the Montenegrins. With none of the other Former Yugoslav countries competing in the semi final (meaning these will not be competing for the Montenegrin vote) this does however raise the hope that Jedward might “get something” from Podgorica.

2. Iceland: As part of the Nordic voting bloc that Ireland finds itself in, we would be hoping for a good vote from Iceland. Alas Iceland has tended to be by far the least generous of the different Nordic bloc members, awarding Ireland 1.0 points on average across the contests that Iceland had opportunities to vote for Ireland in. Having tended to avoid Iceland somewhat in recent semi final draws, Ireland has had the opportunity to earn points from Iceland on eleven occasions with the most popular Irish act proving to be Jedward, who took four points from Iceland in 2011′s final. That 2011 vote leaves some hopes for a healthy points tally for Jedward from Reykjavik but it would appear unlikely to be the elusive douze points.

3. Greece: Since 1998 Greece has had twelve opportunities to awarded votes to Irish Eurovision entries. Since 1998 Greece have failed to award any points to an Irish Eurovision entry. So? Twelve points from Athens to Jedward this year? Er, probably not… even one or two points from Athens would be a bonus based on recent voting history.

4. Latvia: Ireland stands badly in need of friends in this semi final. Fortunately, the other remaining countries in our semi final draw are amongst our friends in the Nordic bloc of Eurovision voting countries. Latvia has proved to be one of the least generous countries to Ireland amongst this bloc and the least generous of the three Baltic states in this bloc up to last year’s contest despite Latvia scoring well from Irish televoters in contests over the 2000s. That said, we have got some points off Riga in recent contests – not much but still some. Having joined Eurovision for the first time in 2000, Latvia has had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on nine occasions over the 1998-2010 period and gave us a total of 15 points (out of a maximum of 84). This was not an amazing tally by any means, but admittedly better than a lot of other countries voting in this semi final. Most of these Latvian points have been won by Sinead Mulvey (5 in 2009) and Brian Kennedy (getting 4 points from Latvia in both the semi final and final in 2006). However Latvia came good for Ireland in 2011, awarding Jedward ten points in both the semi final and final in Dusseldorf, meaning that we now have attained a most respectable 35 points on eleven occasions from the good folk of Latvia. This also means that Latvia must be one of Ireland’s best hopes for a healthy Eurovision points tally in this semi final and one of our better hopes (along with Denmark) for a douze points tally, though a low-points or no-points tally from Riga could well spell an early exit from Baku from Jedward.

5. Albania: Eurovision contestants since 2004, but do seem to end up in Ireland’s semi final on a fairly regular basis. Albania has had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on eight occasions and have given us a total of 13 points (out of a maximum of 96) over these years, including Dervish’s sole points tally from the Albanian jury vote (5 points) in the 2007 Helsinki final. Jedward won no points from Albania in last year’s final and the fear exists that a similar result may be evidenced in 2012, althougn as with Montenegro Jedward’s chances here may be helped by the fact that most of the Former Yugoslav countries are competing in Semi Final 2.

6. Romania: Given the points records for the countries listed up to now, Ireland at this stage is sorely needing a Eurovision friend. As it stands, Romania is probably one of our “better friends” in this semi final. Romania has had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on twelve occasions over the 1998-2010 period and have given us a total of 21 points (out of a maximum of 120). That’s not a great tally by any means. Dawn got 8 points from Romania in 1998, but since then our best votes from Romania have come in semi finals – 5 points (Donna and Joe McCaul) in 2005 and 4 points (Niamh Kavanagh) in 2010. However….and this is a big however…no points from Romania went to Jedward in the 2011 semi final and final. However, in the spirit of canny campaigning Jedward did perform at the Romanian national selection this year – could this trip to Bucharest pay off in terms of Eurovision points?

7. Switerland: “Don’t forget the Swiss” croaked Dustin in 2008. Blithely ignoring the fact that they weren’t voting in his semi final and they didn’t even get a chance to forget next Christmas’s main course. That said, based on past voting patterns the Swiss would be one of our main hopes for serious points in this semi final, having awarded Ireland 33 points across ten contests since 1998, but they tend to show a preference for the traditional Irish ballad with most of these points having been won by Toal, Kennedy and Niamh Kavanagh (who took the douze points from the Swiss in the 2010 semi final) and Jedward left the Swiss voters cold last year. Was last year a temporary blip in what amounts to generally good Swiss relations with Ireland in terms of all things Eurovision or have the Swiss voters only got time for the traditional Irish ballads? If the latter, then Jedward could struggle again to win points from Switzerland this year.

8. Belgium: Having had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on eleven occasions, Belgium had only given us a total of 12 points (out of a maximum of 132) over the 1998-2010 period, but Jedward took a further twelve points from Belgium across last year’s semi final (5 points) and final (7 points). Eamonn Toal (2000) got four points from Belgium and Dustin the Turkey (2008SF) also got 4 points from Belgium, so the Belgians tend to veer towards the, erm, less traditional Irish Eurovision fare. (Note: I am not insinuating that Eamonn amounts to “less traditional Eurovision fare”). On the basis of this, Jedward would be hoping for – and possibly needing – a healthy points tally from Belgium in this semi final.

9. Finland: Finland has awarded Ireland twenty two points on the ten occasions that they have had the opportunity to vote for Irish entries in contests held since 1998, including ten points for Jedward in last year’s final. Ultimately Jedward will be needing a good vote from Finland in this year’s semi final to hold any realistic hopes of making the cut and the final; a low points tally (or worse still, no-points tally) from Helsinki and our Eurovision hopes may well be over for another year.

10. Israel: Prior to 1998, Israel statistically was the country least likely to award Eurovision points, but as times got hard for Ireland in the late 1990s and 2000s Israel have become a more generous source of Eurovision relative to other countries’ generosity levels. Israel have had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on fifteen occasions and have given us a total of 19 points (out of a maximum of 132) over the 1998-2011 period. Could be worse but still not great. Our best vote tally from Israel came in last year’s final when Niamh Kavanagh got 6 points from Israel (only the UK and Switzerland were more/as generous) in a contest where the Irish vote was very much dominated by points coming from the “old Eurovision” states. Israel did not vote for Jedward in the 2011 semi final or final and a similar vote pattern could well emerge this year.

11. San Marino: With just two entries from San Marino to date, San Marino has only had two chances to vote for Irish entries but spurned the opportunity to vote for Dustin in Belgrade’s 2008 semi final and Jedward in last year’s final. So Ireland have yet to win any points from the San Marinese! Not good… It is admittedly a trend just based across two different contests and  thoughts of their own credibility-challenged entry this year may lead the San Marinese  voters to think more kindly of all things Jed-ish.

12. Cyprus: We’re both islands, so there should be a reciprocal vote between us as part of an islands voting bloc? Not really, although our vote tally from Cyrpus is not as bad as from some of the other countries involved in the voting for Semi Final 1. Cyrpus has had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on fourteen occasions and have given us a total of 15 points (out of a maximum of 168) over the years. Not good but even worse when you consider that we’ve got only one point off Cyprus since 2003 with most of the Cyprus points having been won by Eamonn Toal (7) in 2000 and Mickey Joe Harte (7) in 2003. Cyprus had two opportunities to vote for Jedward in 2011 and failed to do so in both the Dusseldorf semi final and final. Again, this is not one of Jedward’s better hopes for a healthy points tally…

13. Denmark: At this stage Ireland stands seriously bereft of friendly faces who may cast us a few Eurovision points! Fortunately Denmark (obviously still feeling bad about all the pillaging back in ye olde Viking times) are one of our better friends in terms of awarding us Eurovision points, only surpassed by our good neighbours in the United Kingdom. We too respond in kind and Danish acts have scored well in terms of winning points from Ireland in recent Eurovision contests. The Danes have had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on thirteen occasions over the 1999-2011 period and have given us a total of 55 points (out of a maximum of 156). This is as good as it gets in this semi final. Sinead Mulvey got 10 points from Denmark in 2009 as she narrowly missed out in the Moscow semi final, Niamh Kavanagh got 6 points from Denmark in last year’s semi final but then got no points from Denmark in the final, with Brian Kennedy getting 5 points from Denmark  in both the semi final and final in 2006. But Denmark really came good for Ireland in 2011 when Jedward earned 12 points from Denmark both in the semi final and the final! Love you Denmark! On that basis, and especially based on the 2011 votes, Ireland should expect a healthy number of points from Copenhagen – anything less than 6, 7 or 8 points from Denmark and it will truly be sayonara Jeds.

14. Russia: Russia has had thirteen chances to vote for Irish entries since 1998 and over these thirteen occasions have only managed to award one point over this time period to an Irish act – to Brian Kennedy ( in the 2006 semi final). From Russia with love? Ha ha ha ha… Again, this is another country that Jedward will struggle to win any Eurovision points from. Even one or two points from  Moscow would have to be viewed as a bonus here.

15. Hungary: Occasional absences from the contest during the 1990s and 200os means that the Hungarians have had few opportunities to vote for Ireland in the Eurovision semi finals/finals since 1998 – just five occasions in all, in which they have given us a sum total of 16 points (out of a maximum of 60). Not too bad!!!  Hungary awarded the McCauls a whopping ten points in the 2005 semi final and Dawn in 1998 took six points from Hungary, but the last three Irish entries that Hungary could have voted for (including Jedward) failed to register any points at all. If last year sets the precedent then there could be bad news for Jedward here, but hopefully Hungary will remember their love for Donna and Joe and send a few points in Ireland’s direction this year.

16. Austria: With an on-off relationship with Eurovision over the past decade or so culminating in a break from the contest of four years ahead of the 2011 contest, Austria has only had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on eight occasions from 1998 onwards but have only given us a total of 8 points (out of a maximum of 96) over these years. Not good. Only two Irish entries – Millenium of Love in 2000 and Lipstick in the 2011 Final (winning four points in the final but no points in the semi final!?) - have posed any interest for the Austrian voters. The fact that Jedward attracted some points off Austria in last year’s final (but not the semi final) may offer hopes of getting some points here.

17. Moldova: Have had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in Eurovision semi finals/finals on eight occasions but have only given us a total of 3 points (out of a maximum of 96) over the years. Not good. Our best ever vote from Moldova came in the 2009 semi final when Sinead Mulvey got 2 points off the Moldovan televoters. Jedward failed to take any points from Moldova in last year’s final. Not a great precedent here for hoping for many points for Jedward from Moldova.

Jedward perform last in Semi Final 1 (18th position).

So what of the Big 5/Host countries who have been drawn to vote in our final? Alas for Ireland, our most generous supporter by far amongst the Big 5 is the United Kingdom (who are indeed our most generous supporter out of all the Eurovision countries) and they will not be voting in our semi final this year (in 2010 the UK votes were crucial in getting Niamh Kavanagh out of her “group of death” semi final in Oslo). We also miss out on the Germans, who had been cool towards Irish entries up to 2010 but really loved Jedward, to the point of awarding them 8 points in both the 2011 Dusseldorf semi final and final. We’ve also missed out in the French…well, with just a miserable 6 points on fourteen occasions from France (and this a country that still owes Ireland big time after letting us down in 1798!!!) we won’t be crying any tears over that. So who did we get?

Performing 10th in the Final – Italy: Having stormed out of Eurovision in a huff in 1997 the Italians were non-runners until their return to the contest last year where their poor Buble pastiche bizarrely finished second in the final, mainly thanks to the jury votes. Mamma Mia! Italy did not have the opportunity to cast a vote for Ireland during the televoting era up to last year’s contest, Cosa posso dire! The last time that Italy got a chance to vote for Ireland was in the 1997 contest in Dublin when the Italian jury awarded Marc Roberts 10 points. Italy hence has only had two oppurtunities to vote for Ireland since 1998 and missed out on the opportunity to award any points to Jedward both in last year’s semi-final and final. Great to have you back ragazzi - not… If last year sets the precedent, there may be niente da avere from Rome again this year.  

Performing 13th in the Final – Azerbaijan:  Azerbaijan is probably the most remote country in Eurovision-land in relation to Ireland and our points haul from the Azeris has tended to reflect the distance, with relatively few points going to Ireland across the different contests that Azerbaijan have had the opportunity to vote for Ireland in. As one of the newer Eurovision states (having competed just over the past four years, but finishing in the Top 10 in each of those years and Top 5 across the past three years), Azerbaijan has just awarded Ireland four points across the five occasions they have had a chance to vote for an Irish entry with all these points being won by Niamh Kavanagh in the 2009 semi final. This does raise some hopes that Jedward might get some of the lower Eurovision points from Baku in a semi final when Azerbaijan cannot vote for Turkey and some of the Former Soviet states, but they are unlikely to take very many points from Azerbaijan.

Performing 19th in the Final – Spain: Spain has had fourteen chances to vote for Irish Eurovision entries since 1998 but had spurned most of these opportunities up to 2010, having awarded Ireland a total of only four points up to last year’s final. However, Spain awarded 7 points to Jedward in the 2011 final and this does raise some hopeful prospects for a similar result from Madrid for Jedward in this year’s semi final.

If voting patterns in our semi final were to exactly mirror these past voting histories then the result would be as follows: 1. Greece 156 points, 2. Romania 123, 3. Russia 111, 4. Denmark 93, 5. Hungary 89, 6. Iceland 87, 7. Moldova 86,  8. Israel 78, 9. Albania 66, 10. Finland 65, 11. Latvia 55, 12. Belgium 49, 13. Cyprus 43, 14. Ireland 41, 15. Austria 22, 16. Switzerland 21, 17. San Marino 18, 18. Montenegro 11.

This is obviously not good for Ireland, but it is worth noting that the analysis ahead of last year’s semi final portrayed Ireland as being in a much weaker position – the improvement in Ireland’s rankings in this analysis no doubt to a good extent reflecting the strong performance and vote-winning abilities of Jedward in 2011′s semi final and final. This also suggests that the mix of countries voting in our semi final, while not the array Ireland would have wanted, is slightly more favourable than it was last year, and remember last year Ireland did manage to make it out of the semi final (albeit by a narrow enough margin of 15 points ahead of 11th placed Belgium). Jedward were helped significantly in the 2011 semi final by an almost perfect draw position of getting to perform last on the night and having achieved the wild card in this year’s draw Ireland has won the same position again, so this draw position will signficantly help Jedward’s prospects of qualifying out of this semi final.

If we go on the basis of points awarded to Jedward in last year’s final from the countries involved in this semi final (and acknowledging the fact that Montenegro were not involved in the 2011 contest), then Jedward would be expected to win a tally of 54 points. It is worth noting that three countries got exactly 54 points in last year’s semi finals; Moldova made the final from Semi Final 2 by just one point but Armenia and Malta both failed to make it to the final out of Semi Final 2. So, if Jedward fail to make “new friends” in this year’s contest, any loss in support from last year’s friends will prove terminal to their Eurovision prospects and make for an early exit from Baku.

The Other Semi Final and Armenia’s withdrawal

Using a similar analysis of past voting patterns for the countries that were drawn to participate in Semi Final 2 in January 2012 lead to a prediction that the result would be as follows: 1. Ukraine 122 points, 2. Serbia 114, 3. Sweden 107, 4. Bosnia and Herzegovina 99, 5. Turkey 93, 6j. Norway 90 and Armenia 90, 8. Georgia 81,  9. Croatia 75, 10. Malta 59, 11. FYR Macedonia 53, 12. Estonia 51, 13. Belarus 48, 14. Bulgaria 44, 15. Slovenia 37, 16. Lithuania 34, 17j. The Netherlands 31 and Slovakia 31, 19. Portugal 17.

Armenia’s decision on 7th March to withdraw from this year’s contest means there will be the same number of countries now in Semi Final 2 as in the first one, but also means that in all likelihood there is now one extra slot in the final up for grabs given Armenia’s tendency to make the final in most years (with exception of 2011) and results arising from the analysis above. If Armenia were not to vote in the contest (as happened when Georgia ‘withdrew’/were excluded in 2009) then the new predicted voting figures based on past voting histories would read as follows: 1j. Ukraine  and Serbia 119 points, 3. Sweden 107, 4. Bosnia and Herzegovina 104, 5. Turkey 100, 6. Norway 88, 7. Croatia 82, 8. Georgia 74, 9. Malta 63, 10. Estonia 57, 11. FYR Macedonia 53, 12. Bulgaria 47, 13. Belarus 42,  14. Slovenia 41, 15. Lithuania 38, 16. The Netherlands 32, 17. Slovakia 31, 19. Portugal 21. Looking at these figures and comparing these with the ones above (when Armenia was still included in the list of competitors) it is clear that the Former Yugoslav states are the big winners here - not losing too many votes due to loss of the Armenian vote (11 votes across the five Former Yugoslav states competing in this semi finals, as against a loss of 30 votes for the five remaining Former Soviet states) and gaining diaspora votes that would otherwise have been won by Armenia (this also applies in the case of Turkey). Overall, with Armenia no longer taking part the Former Yugoslav states combinedwould gain 21 more votes while the Former Soviet states combined would lose 6 votes. In this analysis the “spare” final slot would acutally go to a Former Soviet state, but with Macedonia just behind and with Slovenia also likely to figure, with a strong jury-friendly ballad as in last year’s contest when their entrant Maja Keuc won the jury vote in their semi final. The possibility that all five Former Yugoslav states could make it to the final in this scenario is a very live one. The overall losses for Former Soviet states are tempered somewhat by the fact that Baltic states such as Estonia and Lithuania haven’t tended to win too many votes from Armenia anyway and overall Estonia and Lithuania actually gain as a result of Armenia’s withdrawal. In terms of extra points, the big winners would seem to be Turkey and Croatia (seven more points, possibly securing the countries’ places in the final) and Estonia (six more points, pushing Estonia into the qualifying positions), followed by Serbia (five more points and increased likelihood of winning the semi final) and Bosnia (five more points and a place in the final probably secured), with four more points for Slovenia, Lithuania and Malta. The big losers here would be Georgia (seven fewer points), who would be likely miss out on the final for the first time if the jury vote did not favour them (and having listened to their 2012 entry this is VERY much a possibility) and Belarus (six fewer votes and less of a chance of making the final), with Ukraine likely to lose out on three votes and Norway losing two.

If Armenia were to vote in the contest (as happened in 2006 when Serbia and Montenegro withdrew ahead of that state’s dissolution and following a fracas at the selection final involving Brian Kennedy (NB I mean that he sang at that contest, no that he involved in/was the cause of the fracas) but this was not the case when Georgia was excluded in 2009) then the new predicted voting figures based on past voting histories would read as follows in this case: 1. Ukraine  129, 2. Serbia 124 points, 3. Sweden 113, 4. Bosnia and Herzegovina 106, 5. Turkey 100, 6. Norway 95, 7. Georgia 86, 7. Croatia 82,  9. Malta 66, 10j. Estonia and FYR Macedonia 57, 12. Belarus 50, 13. Bulgaria 47, 14. Slovenia 41, 15. Lithuania 38, 16. The Netherlands 33, 17. Slovakia 31, 19. Portugal 21. The states most likely to gain if Armenia were to vote in the final would obviously be Georgia and Belarus, who both go up the rankings relative to the scenario where there is no Armenia vote, while Ukraine once again are identified as the sole winners of the semi final.

While Armenia’s withdrawal obviously has no impact on Ireland’s prospects in the semi final (different semi), it may improve Jedward’s prospects of garnering high points from a number of West European countries which have large Armenian diaspora, as happened in the 2011 Final when Jedward’s points tally from a number of West European countries was helped by the fact that neither Armenia nor Turkey made the final. Usually the Armenian and Turkish diaspora votes means high votes for these countries from countries such as France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, but with no Armenia or Turkey to dominate the high votes from these countries there were more points to be won from these by other countries, such as Ireland. (This of course didn’t help us much in terms of winning points from France…)

Mobile voting system (pitch for NUIM Apprentices Dragons Den task)

Introduction

Hello and good afternoon everyone. My name is Louise Sheridan and these are my team members Sarah Nealon. Aisling Whelan, Aoife Doyle and Seamus Hanafin. We are here today to make a pitch to you all about a new piece of innovative technology, which we are proud and confident to have created. We as a team know and believe that this piece of technology will make a huge difference to the current political voting system inIreland.